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Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock
Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction

Mastering prediction through evidence-based techniques.

If you enjoy delving into how we can improve our ability to predict future events, "Superforecasting" is a gem. It's not just about the allure of forecasting; it's a deep dive into the psychology and practice that make some people remarkably better at it than others. The book is grounded in rigorous research yet written in an accessible way, offering practical insights that you could apply to your own decision-making and critical thinking.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock
ISBN: 9781101905562
Authors: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Random House LCC US
Date of Publication: 2015-09-29
Format: Paperback
Related Collections: Politics, Business, Personal Development, Science, Economics
Related Topics: Self Help, Personal Development, Finance, Personal Development, Business, Psychology, Mathematics, Psychology, Finance
Goodreads rating: 4.08
(rated by 21042 readers)

Description

The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the
Condition guide

Book Condition Guide

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This book may contain very minor cosmetic defects, but it is in pristine condition. There should be no yellowing, no foxing, no water damage, and no annotations of any kind on the cover and the pages. For paperbacks, there should not be any crease marks on the spine. This book is good as new — lucky you!

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Very Good Condition

This book has been used, but it is still in a clean condition. There should be no foxing or annotations of any kind on the inner pages, but a sparse amount may be present on the cover, title pages, or outside edges of the book. There should be no water damage of any kind. For paperbacks, there may be light crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Good Condition

We do our best to ensure the quality of our books, but there is no escaping the wear and tear that comes with time. Slight foxing and some annotations may be present on the pages and the cover. There should be no water damage of any kind. For paperbacks, there may be several crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Well Read Condition

This is a well-read book, which means that the previous owner probably really enjoyed it! The cover and pages may include moderate foxing and annotations, but the text is not obscured and still readable. Moderate cosmetic defects and minor water damage may be present on the edges of the book. For paperbacks, there may be multiple crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

 

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Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction
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Mastering prediction through evidence-based techniques.

If you enjoy delving into how we can improve our ability to predict future events, "Superforecasting" is a gem. It's not just about the allure of forecasting; it's a deep dive into the psychology and practice that make some people remarkably better at it than others. The book is grounded in rigorous research yet written in an accessible way, offering practical insights that you could apply to your own decision-making and critical thinking.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.