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Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction

Regular price ₱440.55
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Mastering prediction through evidence-based techniques.

If you enjoy delving into how we can improve our ability to predict future events, "Superforecasting" is a gem. It's not just about the allure of forecasting; it's a deep dive into the psychology and practice that make some people remarkably better at it than others. The book is grounded in rigorous research yet written in an accessible way, offering practical insights that you could apply to your own decision-making and critical thinking.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.
New

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction

Regular price ₱440.55
Unit price
per
ISBN: 9781101905562
Publisher: Random House LCC US
Date of Publication: 2015-09-29
Format: Paperback
Goodreads rating: 4.08
(rated by 21042 readers)

Description

The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the
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Mastering prediction through evidence-based techniques.

If you enjoy delving into how we can improve our ability to predict future events, "Superforecasting" is a gem. It's not just about the allure of forecasting; it's a deep dive into the psychology and practice that make some people remarkably better at it than others. The book is grounded in rigorous research yet written in an accessible way, offering practical insights that you could apply to your own decision-making and critical thinking.

  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.